Wikileaks Kenya: Kibaki, Odinga 2008 Coalition

Originally posted on 2011-03-05T11:00:00Z at

A Wikileaks cable dated April 2008 reveals behind the scenes happenings after the signing of the national accord on February 28 that year. While Kibaki and Raila seem to have a rough time getting their house in order, Ranneberger reveals them as puppets under the pull of party hardliners.
Kibaki and Raila Coalition
Their differences sufficed from the 40 ministry slots and how to share top posts. And while they had one or two private meetings, the two principles seemed to offer contradictory versions of what they discussed. Raila, read ODM, wanted some key ministry slots for his key supporters, while President Kibaki was portrayed as a beleaguered politician under pressure from allies not to bow to coalition partner ODM’s demands.
President Kibaki is portrayed as a beleaguered politician under pressure from allies not to bow to coalition partner ODM’s demands. A picture also emerges of Prime Minister Raila Odinga as a party leader eager to cut a deal with his rival.
“Mr Odinga wanted at least two infrastructure Ministries (Energy and Transport), at least on policy coordination Ministry (Foreign Affairs, Justice and Constitutional Affairs, and/or Local Government)...”
This demands put Mwai Kibaki, the president, between a rock and a hard place for the posts were held by some of his key political allies.
Uhuru Kenyatta – “… is a presidential aspirant, does not want to give up this powerful ministry… Kenyatta is important to the cohesion of Kibaki’s Party on National Unity” Martha Karua – “… also a president aspirant and was Kibaki’s lead negotiatoe in the Annan-led talks, holds the Justice and Consitutional Affairs…” William Ruto was portrayed by the cable as an ODM hardliner who feels threatened by the governments allegations that he was involved in organizing and supporting the Rift Valley violence that followed the elections. “I stressed to Kibaki that the US would use its full weight to ensure that Odinga does not make further demands, if Kibaki gives Odinga final two to three ministries he wants… He (Raila) needs face saving, I argued, and if Kibaki gives it, the US will hold Odinga to his promise to the deal…”
Read Raila, Kalonzo and Kibaki's reactions to this allegations => [Click Here]
I don’t know what is more disturbing, the fact that Ranneberger thinks he single-handedly negotiated the peace deal or that Raila seems to be an American puppet.
On January 17, 2008, three weeks after the disputed presidential election, Ambassador Michael Ranneberger dispatched an unclassified cable looking at the results of the election. He basically says that both Kibaki and Raila’s partied were involved in election fraud.
"We found evidence of rigging on both sides and confirmation that some of the rigging took place inside ECK headquarters itself. By analysing various datasets, we developed scenarios that could point to either a Kibaki or a Raila victory.
"We do not think it will ever be possible to tell definitively who won the election…”
“…This is due in part to the compromise of the election officials and election-related ballots and forms, but also because our estimated number of 'ghost votes' (i.e. stuffed ballots) from both sides easily exceeded Kibaki's margin of victory," states the cable. The cable adds, "the cheating" in vote tallying at the Electoral Commission of Kenya between December 28 and 30 "was done exclusively by PNU partisans in Kibaki's favour". However the cable makes clear, "…there was cheating at constituency level by the ODM and PNU".
"Those discrepancies total 459,100 votes, or 4.6 per cent of all votes cast, dwarfing Kibaki's margin of victory (230,478 or 2.3 per cent of all votes cast). It is impossible to conclude definitely how many of these 'ghost votes' went to each candidate," states the cable.
"All of these scenarios assume extensive cheating on both sides. In all cases, the margin of victory for either side is slim and ultimately unknowable".
"Whoever won likely did so by a very slim margin. This flies in the face of the position adopted by the ODM and others as mantra: that the election was brazenly stolen by Kibaki's ECK insiders at the last moment and that Raila should have won by a large margin. It also contradicts any perception or conviction within the Kibaki camp that the latter clearly won the race," concludes the cable.
WikiLeaks has over 2,500 cables sent by the American embassy in Nairobi to Washington DC but has so far has released less than 50. Sources: